Forecast about gold and oil price: Brief overview about commodities.

1 year ago forexsimulation 0

The medium term bullish pressure in the crude oil is still intact in the last week and traders are expecting fresh buying pressure from the starting of this week. Currently, the support for the crude oil price is at 47.00 marks. A clear decisive break below that level will bring the price towards the 46.0 level. If the support level is breached by strong selling pressure then we can see a strong downward rally in the crude oil price towards the 45.00 level. The major critical resistance level for crude oil remains at the 44.00 level. On the contrary, if the price manages to hold its support then the final bullish target would be 49.00 resistance level. If the price manages to breach that level then we will see a retest of the 51.00 level. The weekly RSI still remains strongly bullish in the crude oil price and other technical also suggest a strong upward rally in this week. The recent EIA inventories grew by 1.06 million barrel in the last week which is a shocking rate for the oil investors. Such an alarming increment rate will definitely hinder the upward momentum of the oil price in the longer term scenario.

Meanwhile, the gold price is much more stable after the US job news releases. The data came better than expected which is definitely going to impact the commodity market in the longer terms. Though the price tried to recover its losses but the gain of the US dollar washed away soon. To be precise the commodity is now heading towards further loss followed by the last week weakness. The initial support for the gold is at 1310.00 level. A valid break of that level will bring further downside momentum in the price towards the 1300.00 level. If the critical support of 1300.00 level fails to hold then we will see sharp fall in the gold price towards the 1290.00 level. The daily RSI in the gold chart is strongly bearish and suggesting a strong downward rally in the price. On the contrary, the first initial bullish target for the price will be 13300 level .If the price manages to breach that level then we will see a strong retest of the critical resistance at 1340.00 level. Considering all the situation the overall bias remains bearish on gold price until the market reaches the 136.00 level.

The current market sentiment for the gold price still remains bearish and it has been furthermore intensified by the easing program of the Deutsche Bank. According to the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Comex division is expecting a steady price in gold near around $1218.50 level. On Thursday the December contract was ended hitting a low of $1317.10 level, 0.67% lower. On the contrary, the Futures is trading with much more bullish sentiment and most likely to find support near the $ 1312.90 mark. The upside rise of the price will be limited by the critical resistance at $1327.70 level, Fridays high.

The mortgage security investigation department is settling a $5.4 billion fine against the proposed fine of $ 14 billion by the justice department .This factor has greatly weekend the demand of the retail consumers .On the event of major news release of the revised report of consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan, the dollar gains a temporary strength against its major rivals. The consumer sentiment index hit 91.2 in September whereas the estimation was only 89.8, beating the expectations for a reading of 90.0

The first session of the third quarter of the Wall Street traded lower on Monday since the investors were overly cautious to book their solid gains from June to September period despite the healthy manufacturing reading.

The Dow Jones index fell by 78 points or by 0.43% at 11:40 Am ET. On the contrary, the S&P 500 lost 11 points or 0.51% at that event. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite also traded down to 19 points or by 0.35%.

The S&P 500 has closed with a gain of 3.31% on Friday which is very significant. On the other hand, the Dow jones also gained 2.11%, which is a four-quarter winning steal. From June to September the Nasdaq jumped 9.69% which clearly broke the two-quarter slide.

Though there has been an increased volatility in the stock price but the investors are overly cautious about their open position since there is a major economic news release on Friday. The Non-farm employment claim might create extensive volatility in the stock market in the event of its release. The Great Britain pound also suffered after the announcement regarding article 50 by British Prime minister Theresa. This is the formal decision of the major economic event of Brexit. This will help the Britain to arrange new trade alignment in the market.

The German stocks were significantly down after the holiday on Monday. The US share also went down near about 2% in the event of an unconfirmed report that the DOJ punishment will be much severe as it was expected.

If the manufacturing activity in the US start to expand rapidly then we can expect a strong recovery in Monday’s losses. To be precise the world stock market is suffering from indecision due to various political and economic factors. Most importantly the last FOMC meeting minutes shook the whole stock market to a great extent.